Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from January 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$315.00 – $326.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$321.00Published — price the day we called it

$359.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$365.90Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+21.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$365.90

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 8, 2026 – April 8, 2026

The thesis — published January 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$359.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$315.00 – $326.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$321.00

published January 8, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a key maker of the advanced chips used in AI and high-performance computers. Big investors keep buying, and recent analyst attention has pushed interest higher. But news about chip export rules and China can make the stock jump up or down. The stock looks stretched, so buying on pullbacks is safer and position sizes should reflect geopolitical risk.

Primary drivers

Strong demand from AI and high-performance computing chipmakers
Analyst and media attention brings more investor interest
Export-policy headlines cause quick swings in sentiment
Buying on dips reduces risk from crowded positioning

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 32 days

Lyra published TSM at 321 on January 8 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to demand from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing chipmakers, more analyst and media attention, quick swings from export-policy headlines, and buying on dips because the stock looked stretched.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 359.52 target in 32 days. It later peaked at 390.21 on February 25, a 21.6% gain. By April 8, it ended at 365.90, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 15, TSMC reported 2025 results and said it planned 2026 capital spending of $52 billion to $56 billion. On March 10, TSMC reported February sales rose 22.2% year over year, while January and February combined sales rose 29.9% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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