Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from July 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 16, 2025 — +30% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$320.00 – $329.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$329.91Published — price the day we called it

$428.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$470.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$428.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 62 days.

At window close

+30%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+42.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$428.75

last close inside the window, ended October 16, 2025

Peak price

$470.75

peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$428.88

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$320.00 – $329.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$329.91

published July 18, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla has caught the eye of many big investors, and trading activity is stronger than usual before its 23 July earnings report. A steep 160% U.S. import tax on Chinese graphite helps Tesla because it already sources more battery materials at home. If the company shows profit margins holding steady or more progress on self-driving software, the share price could jump after sitting still for three months, possibly rising about 30% in the next 90 days even though some basics still look weak.

Primary drivers

Earnings on 23 Jul could show better profits and self-driving gains, lifting shares
A 160% tax on Chinese graphite boosts Tesla's U.S. battery cost advantage
Large-scale buying by big investors hints that demand may keep pushing price up
Hype around AI day and a future robotaxi keeps excitement and new buyers coming

How it played out

TSLA: target reached in 62 days

Lyra published TSLA at $329.91 on 2025-07-18 with a short-term thesis for about 30% growth. The thesis pointed to stronger trading activity before the 23 Jul earnings report, a 160% U.S. import tax on Chinese graphite, large-scale buying by big investors, and excitement around artificial intelligence day and a future robotaxi.

Inside the window, TSLA reached a peak of $470.75 on 2025-10-02, above the $428.88 target. The target was reached in 62 days. The stock ended the window at $428.75, just under the target price. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-23, Tesla reported second-quarter results, with revenue at $22.5 billion and operating income at $0.9 billion. On 2025-10-02, Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 497,099 vehicles.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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