Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from January 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 6, 2026 — +3.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$320.00 – $333.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$330.46Published — price the day we called it

$376.72Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$341.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

At window close

+3.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$341.76

last close inside the window, ended April 6, 2026

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published January 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$376.72

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$320.00 – $333.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$330.46

published January 6, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the advanced chips that data centers need for AI. Recent industry reports show data-center buildouts are continuing and TSMC is prepared to supply them. The stock has risen a lot already and can fall quickly if tech sentiment weakens, so buying on dips into support is a safer plan.

Primary drivers

Chip factories benefit when data centers expand for AI
Industry reports point to ongoing need for top-tier production
Big, well-run companies usually weather tech selloffs better
Buying on pullbacks gives a better price in a stretched market

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 36 days

Lyra published TSM on January 6 at $330.46 with expected growth of 14% and a target of $376.72. The thesis pointed to advanced-chip demand from data-center buildouts, ongoing need for top-tier production, the company's scale, and a plan to buy pullbacks in a stretched market.

Inside the window, TSM rose to $390.21 on February 25, above the target, with a peak gain of 18.1%. It reached the target in 36 days. By April 6 it ended at $341.76. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On February 10, Investors.com reported that TSMC's January sales rose 36.8% year over year and 19.8% from December. On February 10, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC's board approved a $44.962 billion spending package for new fabs and capacity upgrades.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals