Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from January 5, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 5, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 50 days.
The thesis — published January 5, 2026
TSMC makes the chips that power big AI projects and high-performance computing, and demand looks durable. Big banks raised their targets and an analyst meeting on Jan 15 could change near-term expectations for 2026. The stock ran up recently, so it makes sense to buy in on controlled pullbacks instead of chasing a higher price. Semiconductor stocks can drop quickly even when the overall trend is positive, so be patient and size positions for likely volatility around the meeting.
Primary drivers
- Growing AI demand keeps foundry factories busy and helps pricing power
- Analyst meeting could change near-term expectations and move the stock
- Large investors remain committed, supporting stock stability
- Buying on dips lowers risk after a recent strong price increase
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 50 days
Lyra published TSM on 2026-01-05 at 326.16 with an 18% expected gain and a 384.87 target. The thesis pointed to durable demand from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, a Jan. 15 analyst meeting that could shift 2026 expectations, committed large investors, and buying on dips after a recent run-up.
Inside the window, the stock reached 390.21 on 2026-02-25. That was above the 384.87 target, with a 19.6% peak gain, and the target was reached in 50 days. It ended the window at 339.04. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On Jan. 15, 2026, TSMC reported record 2025 results and guided first-quarter 2026 revenue to 34.6 billion to 35.8 billion dollars. In February 2026, Apple announced it would buy more than 100 million chips made at TSMC Arizona in 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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