Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from January 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$308.00 – $322.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$319.61Published — price the day we called it

$367.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$339.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+22.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$339.04

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 4, 2026 – April 4, 2026

The thesis — published January 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$367.55

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$308.00 – $322.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$319.61

published January 4, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks strong because Nvidia is ordering more chips, which should keep TSMC busy. The one-year U.S. export license for the Nanjing plant makes near-term China operations less uncertain. Lots more people are buying than usual, which supports the rally, but short-term it may be overheated, so buying on pullbacks is safer.

Primary drivers

Export license cuts near-term China uncertainty
Nvidia H200 orders boost factory usage
Heavy recent buying supports ongoing strength
Short-term overbought favors buying on dips

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 38 days

Lyra published TSM at $319.61 on 2026-01-04 with a short-term thesis for 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a one-year export license reducing near-term China uncertainty, Nvidia H200 orders supporting factory usage, heavy recent buying, and the risk that the stock was short-term overbought.

Inside the window, TSM reached the $367.55 target in 38 days. The peak was $390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 22.1% gain from publication. By 2026-04-04, it ended at $339.04. The published thesis played out. It got there, then gave back part of the move before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported 2025 results and said it planned $52 billion to $56 billion of capital spending in 2026. On 2026-03-10, TSMC reported February sales rose 22.2% from the prior year and fell 20.8% from January.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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