Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from July 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 15, 2025 — -13.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$742.28 – $757.23Entry zone — fair-value band

$753.57Published — price the day we called it

$865.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$812.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$652.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-13.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$652.69

last close inside the window, ended October 15, 2025

Peak price

$812.22

peak on July 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 17, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$865.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$742.28 – $757.23

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$753.57

published July 17, 2025

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After a small 6 percent drop, Intuit is sitting in a price pocket where buyers often step in. Investor mood is still very upbeat, helped by a bank raising its goal price to $870. New AI tools could get more people to pay for TurboTax, and strong cash profits lessen risk. The share could bounce back to around $790-800 over the next three months.

Primary drivers

The share looks cheap for now inside a long-running upward trend.
A major bank lifted its target price to $870, keeping optimism high.
New AI features could make each customer spend more, boosting growth.
Big cash margins let Intuit spend $10B on buying back its own stock.

How it played out

INTU: target was not reached after a July peak

Lyra published INTU at $753.57 on July 17, 2025, with expected growth of 15 percent and a target of $865.02. The thesis pointed to a recent 6 percent drop, a price pocket where buyers often step in, a bank target of $870, new artificial intelligence tools for TurboTax, strong cash profits, and $10B of buybacks.

Inside the window, the stock rose to $812.22 on July 30. That was a 7.8 percent peak gain, but it stayed below the $865.02 target. It ended the window at $652.69 on October 15. The thesis partly played out, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On August 21, 2025, Intuit reported fiscal fourth-quarter results, and coverage said revenue was $3.83 billion with adjusted earnings of $2.75 per share. On August 22, 2025, Investopedia reported that the stock fell in premarket trading after the company gave a fiscal 2026 outlook that was below analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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