Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from July 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 15, 2025 — +23.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$241.16 – $245.12Entry zone — fair-value band

$246.22Published — price the day we called it

$288.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$306.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$303.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 77 days.

At window close

+23.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+24.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$303.89

last close inside the window, ended October 15, 2025

Peak price

$306.47

peak on October 6, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 17, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$288.85

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$241.16 – $245.12

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$246.22

published July 17, 2025

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC's profits jumped 61% compared to last year and the company now expects sales to rise another 38% next quarter, thanks to huge demand for chips used in artificial-intelligence gear. The share price is only 3% under its record level and has been edging higher for months. Worries about new tariffs have not pushed the price down much, and healthy profit margins of 54-56% give the business a safety cushion. If buying interest stays strong, the stock could revisit $263 within three months.

Primary drivers

Record profit beat and higher forecasts show nonstop demand for AI-related chips.
Price has marched upward steadily, staying close to its recent average price.
Trading volumes show many large investors quietly adding shares on small dips.
Even with tariff headlines, fat 54-56% margins help smooth out earnings bumps.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 77 days

Lyra published TSM at $246.22 on 2025-07-17 with an 18% expected gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to profits up 61%, expected sales growth of 38%, demand for chips used in artificial-intelligence gear, a price only 3% under its record level, steady upward trading, buying on small dips, tariff worries that had not pushed the price down much, and 54-56% margins.

Inside the window, TSM reached $306.47 on 2025-10-06, above the $288.85 target. It took 77 days. The peak gain was 24.5%. The stock ended the window at $303.89. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-17, Axios reported that TSMC was speeding up manufacturing at its Phoenix campus and may accelerate more facilities. On 2025-10-09, Investor's Business Daily reported September revenue of 331 billion New Taiwan dollars and said TSMC was due to report third-quarter results on 2025-10-16.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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