Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — closed signal from July 17, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 15, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 17, 2025
Adobe's share price has dipped to a level it has usually bounced from, even though investor excitement is still very high thanks to its long Premier League sponsorship and the fast roll-out of Firefly AI tools. The stock now trades at 24 times next year's expected profits, cheaper than many similar software firms, so there is room for the price to move back up. A $25 billion share-buy plan also adds steady buying power, making a return to the 440-470 range likely within three months.
Primary drivers
- The stock looks very oversold even though its longer trend is still pointing up.
- New sports and conference deals show Firefly AI can bring in more money.
- Shares are cheaper than other big cloud names, so the market may raise the price.
- A huge $25 billion share-buy plan gives the stock regular buying support.
How it played out
ADBE: target was not reached
Lyra published ADBE at $365.72 on 2025-07-17 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to an oversold setup, Firefly artificial intelligence tools, sports and conference deals, a cheaper valuation than other cloud names, and a $25 billion share-buy plan. It expected a return to the 440-470 range within three months.
Inside the window, ADBE peaked at $376.16 on 2025-07-29, a 2.9% gain. That stayed below the $438.86 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-15, the stock ended at $330.63. The published thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-09-11, Adobe reported third-quarter results. The report said revenue rose 11% to $6 billion, above the $5.9 billion expected, and earnings were $5.31 per share versus $5.18 expected.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.