Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from July 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 82 days.
The thesis — published July 2, 2025
TSMC is central to making AI chips. On 2 Jul it said sales should grow by double digits in 2025, while rival Intel hit a delay, widening TSMC’s lead. Strong buying interest has lifted the stock for eight months, and the price is only 8.9% above its recent average, so the climb still looks healthy. A possible 35% US tax break and the July results update could guide the shares toward $255-260 in the next quarter.
Primary drivers
- 2 Jul update confirmed sales should rise by double digits in 2025 thanks to AI demand
- Intel chip delay makes customers more likely to send extra orders to TSMC
- Strong buying volume has kept the stock rising steadily for eight months
- Possible 35% US tax break would cut factory costs in Arizona and boost profit
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 82 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-07-02 at $231.56 for a short-term window ending 2025-09-30. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to double-digit 2025 sales growth tied to artificial intelligence demand, an Intel chip delay, strong buying volume over eight months, a possible 35% US tax break, and a July results update that could guide shares toward $255-260.
Inside the window, TSM peaked at $285.23 on 2025-09-23, above the $271.65 target. The target was reached in 82 days. The peak gain was 23.2%. The stock ended the window at $278.54, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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