Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from July 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025 — +20.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 82 days.
The thesis — published July 2, 2025
TSMC is central to making AI chips. On 2 Jul it said sales should grow by double digits in 2025, while rival Intel hit a delay, widening TSMC’s lead. Strong buying interest has lifted the stock for eight months, and the price is only 8.9% above its recent average, so the climb still looks healthy. A possible 35% US tax break and the July results update could guide the shares toward $255-260 in the next quarter.
Primary drivers
- 2 Jul update confirmed sales should rise by double digits in 2025 thanks to AI demand
- Intel chip delay makes customers more likely to send extra orders to TSMC
- Strong buying volume has kept the stock rising steadily for eight months
- Possible 35% US tax break would cut factory costs in Arizona and boost profit
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 82 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-07-02 at $231.56 for a short-term window ending 2025-09-30. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to double-digit 2025 sales growth tied to artificial intelligence demand, an Intel chip delay, strong buying volume over eight months, a possible 35% US tax break, and a July results update that could guide shares toward $255-260.
Inside the window, TSM peaked at $285.23 on 2025-09-23, above the $271.65 target. The target was reached in 82 days. The peak gain was 23.2%. The stock ended the window at $278.54, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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