Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from January 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,150.00 – $1,175.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,168.61Published — price the day we called it

$1,378.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,547.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,317.23Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

Peak price

$1,547.22

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+32.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$1,317.23

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 2, 2026 – April 2, 2026

The thesis — published January 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,378.96

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,150.00 – $1,175.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,168.61

published January 2, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

A major broker just raised its recommendation and set a $1,500 target, which often makes investors more willing to buy. The stock sits in a longer-term uptrend, so buying small amounts if the price falls a bit can reduce risk. There is still short-term selling pressure, so stage buys rather than buying all at once.

Primary drivers

Broker upgrade and $1,500 target boosts demand
Big spending on AI and chip factories supports tool sales
Long-term trend makes temporary dips buying chances
Volatility and export or geopolitical headlines can hurt shares

How it played out

ASML: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published ASML at 1168.61 on 2026-01-02. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to a broker upgrade with a $1,500 target, spending on artificial intelligence and chip factories, a longer-term uptrend, and the risk that volatility or export and geopolitical headlines could hurt shares.

Inside the window, ASML reached the 1378.96 target in 20 days. It later peaked at 1547.22 on 2026-02-25, a 32.4% gain. By 2026-04-02, it ended at 1317.23. The target was reached, and the thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 28, 2026, ASML reported Q4 2025 net sales of €9.7bn and gross margin of 52.2%. The same day, ASML said proposed changes could lead to a net reduction of around 1,700 positions, mostly in the Netherlands, with some in the United States.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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