Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from January 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 1, 2026 — +12.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$303.89 Published $358.59 Target $341.49 Window close $390.21 Peak
$299.00 – $306.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$303.89Published — price the day we called it
$358.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$341.49Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

At window close
+12.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+28.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-3.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$341.49
last close inside the window, ended April 1, 2026
Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
39

The thesis — published January 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$358.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$299.00 – $306.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$303.89
published January 1, 2026
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is showing strong short-term momentum: prices rose while the U.S. market fell, and trading activity was much higher than usual, indicating strong buying interest. A report that a rival is testing new production tools adds competition risk but also highlights why TSM's leading factory capacity is valuable. Treat as a short 0-3 month trade with strict rules for pullbacks and exits.

Primary drivers

  • Strong momentum with much higher-than-normal buying
  • Growing demand for AI and high-performance chips boosts factory use
  • Investors are noticing TSM as a top performer in a weak market
  • Competition news underscores value of leading production capacity

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 39 days

Lyra published TSM on 2026-01-01 at 303.89 as a short-term trade with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to strong momentum, much higher-than-normal buying, demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance chips, investor attention in a weak market, and competition news that it said highlighted the value of leading production capacity.

Inside the window, TSM reached the target. The stock peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, above the 358.59 target, and the target was reached in 39 days. It ended the window at 341.49. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-10, Investor's Business Daily reported that TSMC's February sales rose 22.2% from the prior year and fell 20.8% from January. The same report said January and February sales together rose 29.9% from the prior year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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