Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 31, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$303.61 Published $349.15 Target $337.95 Window close $390.21 Peak
$295.00 – $305.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$303.61Published — price the day we called it
$349.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$337.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$337.95
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
15
Window
December 31, 2025 – March 31, 2026

The thesis — published December 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$349.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$295.00 – $305.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$303.61
published December 31, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a buy-on-pullback idea backed by big investors increasing holdings and a positive price signal. A Reuters report on 2025-12-31 says Nvidia asked TSMC to boost H200 chip production because China orders may top 2 million units, which points to steady factory demand. Main dangers are export approvals and volatile headlines, so don't chase the top.

Primary drivers

  • Nvidia asked TSMC to increase H200 production, signaling demand
  • Positive price action plus heavy institutional buying shows buyer interest
  • Spending on AI infrastructure should keep chip demand strong
  • Export approvals and geopolitical headlines can cause sudden drops

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published TSM at 303.61 on 2025-12-31 as a short-term buy-on-pullback idea. The thesis expected 15% growth to 349.15. It pointed to Nvidia asking TSMC to increase H200 production, positive price action, heavy institutional buying, and spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. It also named export approvals and geopolitical headlines as risks.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 15 days. It later peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 28.5%. By 2026-03-31, it ended at 337.95. The thesis played out, even though the close finished below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported 2025 results and said 2026 capital spending would be $52 billion to $56 billion. On 2026-03-10, Investor's Business Daily reported that TSMC's February sales rose 22.2% from a year earlier and fell 20.8% from January.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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