Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$300.73 Published $351.85 Target $316.50 Window close $390.21 Peak
$292.00 – $305.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$300.73Published — price the day we called it
$351.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$316.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 41 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$316.50
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
41
Window
December 30, 2025 – March 30, 2026

The thesis — published December 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$351.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$292.00 – $305.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$300.73
published December 30, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a relatively safe way to own chips because its business, market mood, and finances line up well. New rules in China make supply links less certain but increase value for the most advanced factories as AI keeps driving demand. For the next few months, buy in stages when price dips to manage swings and headlines. Trading volume and liquidity make disciplined scaling possible.

Primary drivers

  • Top maker of advanced chips benefiting from growing AI demand
  • Consistent scores lower the chance it diverges badly from peers
  • China equipment rules add short-term uncertainty to supply chains
  • Current technical trend supports buying on controlled pullbacks

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 41 days

Lyra published TSM at 300.73 on 2025-12-30, with a short-term window ending 2026-03-30. The thesis expected 17% growth to 351.85. It pointed to TSM's role in advanced chips, demand tied to artificial intelligence, steady scores versus peers, China equipment-rule uncertainty, and a technical trend that supported staged buying on pullbacks.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 41 days. It peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 29.8%. By 2026-03-30, it ended at 316.5. The thesis played out, and the move went past the target before giving back part of the gain.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported 2025 revenue of $122.42 billion and net income of $55.13 billion, and said 2026 capital spending would be $52 billion to $56 billion. On 2026-02-10, TSMC's board approved $44.962 billion of capital appropriations for new fabs and capacity upgrades.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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