Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from December 29, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 29, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 42 days.
The thesis — published December 29, 2025
TSM is standing out among chipmakers because it bounced strongly in the latest quarter and is a huge company many big investors own. Analysts see positive trading patterns and high interest, so the plan is to buy more when price dips. Pullbacks may be bumpy, but demand from AI chipmakers gives a near-term tailwind.
Primary drivers
- Recent quarter rebound drew attention from large investors
- Growing AI chip demand increases factory orders
- Positive trading momentum suggests pullbacks may hold
- High trading volume lets you add shares in stages
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 42 days
Lyra published TSM at $302.26 on 2025-12-29 with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a recent quarter rebound, large investor attention, demand from artificial intelligence chipmakers, positive trading momentum, and high trading volume that could support staged buying during pullbacks.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $356.67 target in 42 days. The stock later peaked at $390.21 on 2026-02-25, up 29.1%. It ended the window at $326.74. The thesis played out on the published measure, even though the final price was below the peak.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-10, TSMC's board approved a $44.962 billion spending package for new fabs and capacity upgrades. On 2026-03-10, TSMC reported February sales up 22.2% year over year and down 20.8% from January.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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