Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from December 28, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$302.84 Published $363.41 Target $326.74 Window close $390.21 Peak
$295.00 – $305.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$302.84Published — price the day we called it
$363.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$326.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 44 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$326.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
44
Window
December 28, 2025 – March 28, 2026

The thesis — published December 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$363.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$295.00 – $305.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$302.84
published December 28, 2025
Confidence
92%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the top maker of advanced chips that big tech needs for AI and data centers. Lots more people are buying than usual, and recent reports show four very wealthy investors own big stakes. New 2nm chips should cut power use by about 25-30%, which helps TSM keep customers and charge premium prices. Best approach is to buy if the price pulls back into the identified range for a likely short-term continuation.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand from AI and high-performance computing keeps factories busy
  • Billionaire stakes signal long-term investor confidence
  • More buying interest now increases short-term momentum
  • 2nm chips cut power use ~25-30%, boosting pricing power

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 44 days

Lyra published TSM at $302.84 on 2025-12-28 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to demand from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, billionaire stakes, heavier buying interest, and 2nm chips that could cut power use by about 25-30%. The target was $363.41.

Inside the window, TSM rose above the target. It peaked at $390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 28.8%, and reached the target in 44 days. By 2026-03-28, it ended at $326.74. The published thesis played out on price, even though the close gave back part of the move.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported record 2025 results and gave a stronger 2026 outlook. This was a reported company update, not an explanation for the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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