Track record · closed signal

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) — closed signal from December 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 26, 2026 — -9.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.10 – $17.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$17.62Published — price the day we called it

$19.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.31Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$16.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close

-9.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-6.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$16.01

last close inside the window, ended March 26, 2026

Peak price

$19.31

peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 26, 2025

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$19.03

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.10 – $17.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$17.62

published December 26, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ARR is mainly a trade for people who want income over the next few months, but headlines make it risky. A 2025-12-12 article called it an attractive high-yield payer, which could bring buyers if interest rate swings calm down. However, a 2025-12-19 Strong Sell listing may scare investors and cause selling, so we are watching for a short-term yield bounce while managing rate-related downside carefully.

Primary drivers

Positive 2025-12-12 coverage can attract income-seeking buyers
Holdings in government-backed mortgages can be steadier in stress
2025-12-19 Strong Sell label can trigger short-term selling pressure
Returns depend heavily on interest rate moves and spread changes

How it played out

ARR: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published ARR on 2025-12-26 at $17.62 as a short-term income trade. The thesis expected 8% growth and pointed to positive 2025-12-12 coverage for income-seeking buyers, government-backed mortgage holdings, a 2025-12-19 Strong Sell label as a selling risk, and dependence on interest rates and spread changes.

Inside the window, ARR reached $19.31 on 2026-01-16, above the $19.03 target. It got there in 21 days. The peak gain was 9.6%. By 2026-03-26, it had fallen to $16.01. The thesis played out on the measured target, even though the closing price was below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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