Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 26, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 45 days.
The thesis — published December 26, 2025
Recent company news shows much stronger demand and continued investment into hard technology. Analysts see clear signs of rising buying and higher trading volume, which suggests big investors are positioning for another advance. Because price swings are larger than usual, enter in stages instead of buying all at once.
Primary drivers
- Company said demand picked up in the Dec 26 update
- Rising buying and volume suggest large investors are active
- Spending on AI and high-performance computing boosts chip factory use
- Strong fundamentals limit downside versus riskier supply names
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 45 days
Lyra published TSM at 300.09 on 2025-12-26 with 18% expected growth and a target of 354.11. The thesis pointed to stronger demand in the Dec 26 update, rising buying and volume, spending on artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, and strong fundamentals versus riskier supply names.
Inside the window, TSM rose to 390.21 on 2026-02-25, above the 354.11 target. It reached the target in 45 days. The peak gain was 30%. By 2026-03-26, it ended at 326.11. The thesis played out, even though the stock gave back part of the move before the window closed.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter results, including a 35% year-over-year profit increase and a 2026 capital spending forecast of up to $56 billion. On 2026-03-10, TSMC reported February sales up 22.2% year over year, while sales fell 20.8% from January.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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