Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 25, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$298.80 Published $358.56 Target $347.75 Window close $390.21 Peak
$292.00 – $300.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$298.80Published — price the day we called it
$358.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$347.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 46 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$347.75
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
46
Window
December 25, 2025 – March 25, 2026

The thesis — published December 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$358.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$292.00 – $300.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$298.80
published December 25, 2025
Confidence
93%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the clearest short-term leader in AI chip production: analysts agree it has very high market share and recent news supports strong demand and pricing. Industry forecasts show big growth by 2026, which helps TSM. Current technical signals suggest buying small declines is safer than chasing new highs.

Primary drivers

  • Very large share in AI chip manufacturing, which helps pricing
  • Industry revenue expected to grow substantially by 2026
  • Short-term technical picture looks constructive, not stretched
  • Market favoring leaders increases chance of continued strength

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 46 days

Lyra published TSM at 298.8 on 2025-12-25 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to a very large share in artificial-intelligence chip manufacturing, substantial industry revenue growth expected by 2026, a constructive technical picture, and a market favoring leaders. The target was 358.56.

Inside the window, TSM reached the target in 46 days. It peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 30.6% gain, so the peak was above the target. By 2026-03-25, it ended at 347.75. The thesis played out, though the final price had pulled back below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-10, MarketWatch reported that TSMC's January sales rose 37% from the year-earlier month to NT$401.3 billion. On 2026-03-10, Investor's Business Daily reported that February sales rose 22.2% year over year, while combined January and February sales rose 29.9% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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