Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from December 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 24, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 22 days.
The thesis — published December 24, 2025
TSMC is seen as a main supplier for chips used in AI, and recent coverage named it a top pick for 2026, which keeps demand steady. Reports that a rival paused a test further show TSMC may be ahead on making advanced chips. With price near $298, the plan is to buy during calm periods for a short-term move toward analyst targets. Geopolitics is the main risk.
Primary drivers
- Strong demand for AI chips keeps factory use and pricing solid
- Competitor setbacks make TSMC look more reliable at making advanced chips
- Frequent analyst praise draws more investor attention and buying
- Large scale and technology lead make customers less likely to switch
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 22 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-12-24 at $297.52, with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, competitor setbacks in advanced chipmaking, analyst praise, and TSMC's scale and technology lead. It also named geopolitics as the main risk.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $342.15 target in 22 days. The peak was $390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 31.2% gain. It ended the window at $343.25. The thesis played out, and the stock finished above the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-16, TSMC reported fourth-quarter results and said 2026 capital spending would be $52 billion to $56 billion. On 2026-03-10, TSMC reported February sales rose 22.2% year over year, while sales fell 20.8% from January.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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