Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from December 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$231.71 Published $259.52 Target $210.14 Window close $248.94 Peak
$225.00 – $233.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$231.71Published — price the day we called it
$259.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$248.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$210.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 62% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$248.94
peak on January 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$210.14
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 23, 2025 – March 23, 2026

The thesis — published December 23, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$259.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$225.00 – $233.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$231.71
published December 23, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon is a strong company because its online retail business and cloud unit both drive growth. Holiday sales topping $1 trillion show short-term shopping strength. The stock has not fallen enough to be a clear bargain and signals are mixed, so it's safer to buy on small dips and add only if buying interest stays steady.

Primary drivers

  • Big holiday sales show short-term customer demand for retail
  • Cloud services and advertising add steady, different income sources
  • Plan to add gradually because recent market signals are mixed
  • Large company size makes it easier to trade around established levels

How it played out

AMZN: target not reached in the window

Lyra published AMZN at 231.71 on 2025-12-23 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to retail demand from holiday sales, cloud services, advertising, mixed market signals, and a plan to add gradually inside the 225 to 233 entry zone.

Inside the window, AMZN rose to 248.94 on 2026-01-12, a 7.4% peak gain. It stayed below the 259.52 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-23, it ended at 210.14. The thesis partly played out early, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On February 5, 2026, The Guardian reported Amazon's fourth-quarter revenue of $213bn and a 2026 capital spending plan of $200bn. The article also reported 24% growth at Amazon Web Services.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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