Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$180.13 Published $198.06 Target $157.63 Window close $180.63 Peak
$172.52 – $178.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$180.13Published — price the day we called it
$198.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$180.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$157.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$180.63
peak on July 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$157.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 16, 2025 – October 14, 2025

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$198.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$172.52 – $178.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$180.13
published July 16, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Investor mood has turned upbeat while the stock still looks cheap, costing about 13 times next year’s profits, which is lower than its usual price. You get a solid 5.1% yearly cash payout and sales of its newer smoke-free products rose 22%. More traders are betting against consumer stocks, so any good news could force them to buy back shares and push the price up. A steadier euro could add a bit more lift, aiming for about $205 in the coming months.

Primary drivers

  • A 22% jump in IQOS heated-tobacco sales lifts profits with richer product mix.
  • A 5.1% dividend and a lower-than-usual share price draw cautious income seekers.
  • High short bets on consumer stocks could spark a squeeze, forcing buyers to rush in.
  • Euro stability removes currency drag, letting foreign earnings show up more clearly.

How it played out

PM: thesis stayed below target

Lyra published PM at $180.13 on 2025-07-16 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to a 22% jump in IQOS heated-tobacco sales, a 5.1% dividend, a lower-than-usual share price, high short bets on consumer stocks, and euro stability as possible support.

Inside the window from 2025-07-16 to 2025-10-14, PM peaked at $180.63 on 2025-07-16, up 0.3%. It stayed below the $198.06 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $157.63. The thesis missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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