Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from December 23, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$295.10 Published $354.12 Target $338.45 Window close $390.21 Peak
$285.00 – $297.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$295.10Published — price the day we called it
$354.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$338.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 48 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+32.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$338.45
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
48
Window
December 23, 2025 – March 23, 2026

The thesis — published December 23, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$354.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$285.00 – $297.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$295.10
published December 23, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the world leader in making advanced chips. Recent company news shows big revenue growth and higher market share, which supports continued optimism. The stock has an overall upward outlook but has been uneven recently, so buying gradually near known support levels is safer. If factory use stays high, reaching the low 340s in about three months is possible.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for advanced chips used in AI systems
  • Recent quarter showed strong revenue and higher market share
  • Solid company finances make buying dips more likely
  • Staged buying helps handle short-term price swings

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 48 days

Lyra published TSM at 295.10 on 2025-12-23 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to leadership in advanced chips, demand from artificial intelligence systems, recent revenue growth, higher market share, solid finances, and staged buying near support because the stock had been uneven.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 354.12 target in 48 days. It peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 32.2% gain. By 2026-03-23 it ended at 338.45. The thesis played out, then the stock gave back part of the move before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported record 2025 results and gave first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance. In March 2026, TSMC reported February sales rose 22.2% from a year earlier, while sales fell from January.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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