Track record · closed signal

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) — closed signal from December 22, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 22, 2026 — -11.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

META price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$672.78 Published $753.51 Target $593.66 Window close $744.00 Peak
$650.00 – $665.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$672.78Published — price the day we called it
$753.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$744.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$593.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-11.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$593.66
last close inside the window, ended March 22, 2026
Peak price
$744.00
peak on January 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$753.51
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$650.00 – $665.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$672.78
published December 22, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Meta is in a strong uptrend but the stock is stretched. Momentum and high trading volume suggest the trend can keep going, yet a short-term overbought reading and mixed sentiment mean normal pullbacks are likely. Recent product updates help the story but aren't big enough to stop routine dips. Treat this as a pullback setup, not a buy-now chase.

Primary drivers

  • Momentum and heavy volume suggest trend continuation
  • AI glasses update boosts product story and user engagement
  • Entering after a pullback lowers risk from being overbought
  • Large market cap helps trade execution and stability

How it played out

META: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published META at $672.78 on 2025-12-22 with 12% expected growth and a $753.51 target. The thesis pointed to momentum, heavy volume, a product story helped by artificial intelligence glasses, and a better setup after a pullback. It also said the stock was stretched and routine dips were likely.

Inside the window, META peaked at $744 on 2026-01-29, for a 10.6% gain. That stayed below the $753.51 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-22, the stock ended at $593.66. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Meta reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $59.89 billion and earnings of $8.88 per share. On 2026-01-28, AP reported that Meta guided first-quarter 2026 revenue to $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion and expected 2026 expenses of $162 billion to $169 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All META signals