Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from December 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 24 days.
The thesis — published December 22, 2025
The stock shows signs it may have dropped too far and could bounce: sentiment is very positive and trading volume is high, while a short-term indicator points to an oversold turn. Recent news strengthens its AI leadership, but a key trend indicator is still negative, so buy gradually and manage risk for a possible rebound in the next 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Stock appears oversold but has strong market interest and liquidity
- Growing AI demand is boosting long-term chip sales potential
- Recent news highlights TSMC and its suppliers, supporting credibility
- Using staged buys lowers risk while the short-term trend improves
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 24 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-12-22 at 293.4 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-22. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to an oversold setup, strong market interest and liquidity, artificial intelligence demand, recent credibility-supporting news, and staged buying while the short-term trend improved.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 346.21 target in 24 days. The peak was 390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 33% gain, so the move went beyond the published target. It ended the window at 329.24. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $33.73 billion and full-year 2025 revenue of $122.42 billion. It also said 2026 capital spending would be $52 billion to $56 billion. These were company updates during the measurement window, not stated causes of the stock move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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