Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from December 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 22, 2026 — +12.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$293.40 Published $346.21 Target $329.24 Window close $390.21 Peak
$289.00 – $296.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$293.40Published — price the day we called it
$346.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$329.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 24 days.

At window close
+12.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+33%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$329.24
last close inside the window, ended March 22, 2026
Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
24

The thesis — published December 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$346.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$289.00 – $296.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$293.40
published December 22, 2025
Confidence
92%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock shows signs it may have dropped too far and could bounce: sentiment is very positive and trading volume is high, while a short-term indicator points to an oversold turn. Recent news strengthens its AI leadership, but a key trend indicator is still negative, so buy gradually and manage risk for a possible rebound in the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Stock appears oversold but has strong market interest and liquidity
  • Growing AI demand is boosting long-term chip sales potential
  • Recent news highlights TSMC and its suppliers, supporting credibility
  • Using staged buys lowers risk while the short-term trend improves

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 24 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-12-22 at 293.4 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-22. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to an oversold setup, strong market interest and liquidity, artificial intelligence demand, recent credibility-supporting news, and staged buying while the short-term trend improved.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 346.21 target in 24 days. The peak was 390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 33% gain, so the move went beyond the published target. It ended the window at 329.24. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $33.73 billion and full-year 2025 revenue of $122.42 billion. It also said 2026 capital spending would be $52 billion to $56 billion. These were company updates during the measurement window, not stated causes of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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