Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 21, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 21, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 16 days.
The thesis — published December 21, 2025
TSMC looks like a safer way to bet on the chip boom because it has strong business fundamentals and a major bank recently reiterated a Buy rating with a $390 target. Right now the stock is in a pullback and needs to stabilize before committing more money. Over the next 0-3 months a rebound is plausible if chip stocks begin leading again and trading volume improves.
Primary drivers
- Analyst support from a major bank can steady investor confidence
- Growing demand for AI chips should lift factory usage
- Fundamentals are more stable than many hype-driven AI names
- Plan to buy on dips while price patterns recover reduces timing risk
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 16 days
Lyra published TSM at $288.95 on 2025-12-21 with a short-term thesis for 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to major-bank analyst support, growing demand for artificial-intelligence chips, steadier fundamentals than more hype-driven names, and a buy-on-dips setup while price patterns recovered.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $332.29 target in 16 days. It later peaked at $390.21 on 2026-02-25, for a 35% peak gain. By 2026-03-21, it ended at $329.24. The published thesis played out, even though the final price sat below the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-10, TSMC reported January sales growth, and TSM stock reached a record high that day. On 2026-03-10, TSMC reported February sales rose year over year, while sales fell from January.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.