Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from December 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$280.00 – $292.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$288.95Published — price the day we called it

$340.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$329.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+35%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$329.24

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

December 20, 2025 – March 20, 2026

The thesis — published December 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$340.96

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$280.00 – $292.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$288.95

published December 20, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like a good short-term buy because its business and market mood are strong. New 2nm chip production can lower energy use 25%-30%, and the company reported sales more than doubled compared to last year, which attracts big investors buying on dips. Price patterns show some recovery but momentum is not fully back, so enter in steps.

Primary drivers

2nm process lowers energy use 25%-30%, boosting demand
Sales more than doubled compared to last year, showing strong demand
Price is showing early recovery with only a small recent average price drop
Leading semiconductor name benefiting as its sector gains strength

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-12-20 at 288.95 with an expected gain of 18% and a target of 340.96. The thesis pointed to 2nm production that could lower energy use 25%-30%, sales that had more than doubled compared with last year, early price recovery, and sector strength.

Inside the window, TSM rose past the target and peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25. The peak gain was 35%, and the target was reached in 26 days. By 2026-03-20, it ended at 329.24. The thesis played out, then the stock gave back part of the move before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, Cinco Dias reported that TSMC posted record 2025 net profit and said it expected first-quarter 2026 sales of 34.6 billion to 35.8 billion dollars. In February 2026, Investor's Business Daily reported that TSMC February sales rose 22.2% year over year and fell 20.8% from January.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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