Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026 — -17.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$455.00 – $480.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$476.44Published — price the day we called it

$524.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$498.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$392.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-17.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$392.78

last close inside the window, ended March 18, 2026

Peak price

$498.83

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$524.08

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$455.00 – $480.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$476.44

published December 18, 2025

Confidence

58%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

- Explain plan: what to watch and why - Clarify main risks and rewards - Give short-term action guidance Tesla can move fast in either direction. Some firms are bullish, but reported US sales fell about 23% in November and the company plans much bigger spending through 2026 while aiming to start robotaxi production in mid-2026. That can spark speculative rallies yet also squeeze near-term cash stories, so treat it as a short-term watch trade: buy only on pullbacks and sell quickly on bad headlines.

Primary drivers

Robotaxi and autonomy headlines can cause big short-term price moves
Periods of heavy buying can keep momentum going if sentiment stays positive
Weak near-term sales can produce fast, sharp price drops
Higher planned spending may hurt short-term profits despite long-term upside

How it played out

TSLA: target was not reached

Lyra published TSLA at $476.44 on December 18, 2025, with expected growth of 10% and a target of $524.08. The thesis pointed to robotaxi and autonomy headlines, possible momentum from heavy buying, weak near-term sales, and higher planned spending as the main things to watch.

Inside the window, TSLA peaked at $498.83 on December 22, 2025, for a 4.7% gain. It stayed below the target. It ended the window at $392.78. The thesis partially played out on the early move, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On January 2, 2026, Investor's Business Daily reported Tesla's fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries and production, and said energy storage deployment set a quarterly record. On January 28, 2026, The Guardian reported Tesla said it would discontinue Model S and Model X production as it shifted focus toward robotics.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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