Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from December 18, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 18, 2025
- Explain plan: what to watch and why - Clarify main risks and rewards - Give short-term action guidance Tesla can move fast in either direction. Some firms are bullish, but reported US sales fell about 23% in November and the company plans much bigger spending through 2026 while aiming to start robotaxi production in mid-2026. That can spark speculative rallies yet also squeeze near-term cash stories, so treat it as a short-term watch trade: buy only on pullbacks and sell quickly on bad headlines.
Primary drivers
- Robotaxi and autonomy headlines can cause big short-term price moves
- Periods of heavy buying can keep momentum going if sentiment stays positive
- Weak near-term sales can produce fast, sharp price drops
- Higher planned spending may hurt short-term profits despite long-term upside
How it played out
TSLA: target was not reached
Lyra published TSLA at $476.44 on December 18, 2025, with expected growth of 10% and a target of $524.08. The thesis pointed to robotaxi and autonomy headlines, possible momentum from heavy buying, weak near-term sales, and higher planned spending as the main things to watch.
Inside the window, TSLA peaked at $498.83 on December 22, 2025, for a 4.7% gain. It stayed below the target. It ended the window at $392.78. The thesis partially played out on the early move, but the full target missed.
What happened during the window
On January 2, 2026, Investor's Business Daily reported Tesla's fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries and production, and said energy storage deployment set a quarterly record. On January 28, 2026, The Guardian reported Tesla said it would discontinue Model S and Model X production as it shifted focus toward robotics.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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