Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corp. (APP) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$680.00 – $695.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$689.08Published — price the day we called it

$826.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$738.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$442.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$738.01

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$442.57

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 18, 2025 – March 18, 2026

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$826.90

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$680.00 – $695.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$689.08

published December 18, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin looks like it hit a heavy selloff but with strong buying volume afterward, a setup that often leads to a quick bounce in 4 to 12 weeks. Two major firms increased attention and a price target bump, and one noted AppLovin's advantage in mobile ad data, which attracts institutional buyers. Price swings may be large, so enter gradually and take profits on sharp spikes.

Primary drivers

Benchmark raised its price target to $775, which can lift sentiment
Heavy selling then strong buying volume often precedes a quick rebound
Company has a strong edge in mobile ads and large ad data scale
Insiders own meaningful stock, which can support risk-on interest

How it played out

APP: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published APP at $689.08 on December 18, 2025, with 20% expected growth and a target of $826.90. The thesis pointed to a heavy selloff followed by strong buying volume, Benchmark's $775 price target, mobile ad data scale, and insider ownership as reasons a quick bounce could happen in 4 to 12 weeks.

The stock rose early, but the move stopped at $738.01 on December 22, 2025. That was a 7.1% peak gain, and it stayed below the target. By March 18, 2026, APP ended at $442.57. The thesis partially played out at first, then missed.

What happened during the window

On February 12, 2026, Barron's reported that AppLovin posted fourth quarter earnings per share of $3.24 and revenue of $1.66 billion. On February 20, 2026, Barron's reported that AppLovin was hiring for a next generation social platform and that Giovanni Ge had confirmed the plans in a podcast.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All APP signals