Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$275.00 – $285.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$282.29Published — price the day we called it

$333.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$339.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+38.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$339.57

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

December 18, 2025 – March 18, 2026

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$333.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$275.00 – $285.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$282.29

published December 18, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks deeply oversold now, which often leads to a quick rebound once heavy selling ends. Morgan Stanley raised its price target and forecasts about 30% revenue growth by 2026 driven by AI demand, which is a strong tailwind. Near-term trend shows weakness, so enter in stages and watch whether trading volume confirms a stable bottom.

Primary drivers

Raised target and AI demand point to stronger future sales
Extreme oversold reading often comes before a quick rebound
Many active participants help make a rebound last longer
Large investors positioning for 2026 can extend gains over weeks

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 25 days

Lyra published TSM at 282.29 on 2025-12-18 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-18. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to an oversold setup, a Morgan Stanley target raise, about 30% revenue growth by 2026 tied to artificial intelligence demand, staged entry, volume confirmation, active participation, and large investors positioning for 2026.

The stock reached the 333.10 target in 25 days. It later peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a 38.2% peak gain. By the window end, it was 339.57. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of 33.73 billion and said 2026 capital spending could be 52 billion to 56 billion. On 2026-02-10, TSMC's board approved 44.962 billion of capital appropriations for new fabs and capacity upgrades.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals