Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$285.26 Published $336.61 Target $345.98 Window close $390.21 Peak
$270.00 – $286.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$285.26Published — price the day we called it
$336.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$345.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+36.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$345.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
29
Window
December 17, 2025 – March 17, 2026

The thesis — published December 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$336.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$270.00 – $286.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$285.26
published December 17, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Price action looks like sellers may be tired, but broader selling pressure is still in place, so we need a clear sign that selling has eased before trusting a rebound. Recent industry news supports future demand, while Chinese moves on advanced chipmaking add political risk. Prefer small, staged buys after the stock shows stability.

Primary drivers

  • Industry forecast for more equipment spending, boosting chip demand
  • Very oversold readings make a short-term rebound more likely
  • Strong business performance can draw buyers when selling calms
  • Political and cycle news can keep swings large and fast

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 29 days

Lyra published TSM at 285.26 on 2025-12-17, with a short-term thesis for 18% growth to 336.61. The thesis pointed to tired sellers, broader selling pressure, an industry forecast for more equipment spending, oversold readings, strong business performance, and political and cycle risk.

Inside the window, TSM reached the target in 29 days. It peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 36.8% gain, above the 336.61 target. It ended on 2026-03-17 at 345.98, still above the target. Verdict: the thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 15, 2026, TSMC reported record 2025 results and said first-quarter 2026 sales were expected between 34.6 and 35.8 billion dollars.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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