Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from December 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$165.84 Published $195.69 Target $127.80 Window close $172.98 Peak
$160.00 – $166.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$165.84Published — price the day we called it
$195.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$172.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$127.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$172.98
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$127.80
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 17, 2025 – March 17, 2026

The thesis — published December 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$195.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$160.00 – $166.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$165.84
published December 17, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify is getting strong buying pressure and positive sentiment, helped by merchant services sales growing 38% compared to last year. That supports further gains, but big differences in internal scores and a headline about ARK trimming its stake mean many positions could be closed quickly, so price can swing fast.

Primary drivers

  • Merchant services sales more than doubled compared to last year? (actually up 38%) supports growth case
  • Positive market momentum helps the stock keep rising after dips
  • High investor optimism can keep inflows coming but may reverse fast
  • Institutional trimming can cause sudden selling and volatility

How it played out

SHOP: target was not reached

Lyra published SHOP at 165.84 on 2025-12-17 with an expected gain of 18%. The target was 195.69. The thesis pointed to merchant services sales growing 38% compared to last year, positive market momentum, high investor optimism, and the risk that institutional trimming could bring sudden selling and volatility.

Inside the window, SHOP rose to 172.98 on 2025-12-22, a 4.3% peak gain. It stayed below the target and never reached 195.69. By 2026-03-17, it ended at 127.80. The thesis partially played out early, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-11, Shopify reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.67 billion, up 31%, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.48. The same report said the company announced a $2 billion share buyback program.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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