Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from December 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$162.35 Published $185.08 Target $126.58 Window close $172.98 Peak
$156.00 – $164.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$162.35Published — price the day we called it
$185.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$172.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$126.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$172.98
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$126.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 16, 2025 – March 16, 2026

The thesis — published December 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$185.08
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$156.00 – $164.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$162.35
published December 16, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify is seen as a short-term momentum trade because sentiment for software firms is improving and a Jefferies note highlights Shopify as a leader. A new app on Temu will let more merchants sell in 30+ markets, which can help growth. The main risk is that the stock already rose a lot, so it makes sense to buy on dips rather than chase higher.

Primary drivers

  • Analyst note labels Shopify a software leader, helping sentiment
  • Temu app opens Shopify to merchants in 30+ new markets
  • More buyers and continued trend support short-term momentum
  • Recent strong gains raise valuation questions near term

How it played out

SHOP: target was not reached

Lyra published SHOP at $162.35 on 2025-12-16 as a short-term momentum trade. The thesis expected 14% growth toward $185.08. It pointed to improving software sentiment, a Jefferies note calling Shopify a leader, a Temu app that opened access to merchants in 30+ markets, and the risk that recent gains had already raised valuation questions.

Inside the window, SHOP rose to a peak of $172.98 on 2025-12-22, a 6.5% gain. It stayed below the $185.08 target. By 2026-03-16, it ended at $126.58. The thesis only partially played out early. It missed the target.

What happened during the window

On January 11, 2026, Axios reported that Google and Shopify, with other retailers, unveiled the Universal Commerce Protocol for artificial intelligence shopping. On February 11, 2026, MarketWatch reported Shopify's fourth-quarter results, including revenue of $3.67 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.48.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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