Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from December 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 16, 2026 — +2.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.50 – $33.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.13Published — price the day we called it

$39.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$33.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 76 days.

At window close

+2.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+21.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$33.96

last close inside the window, ended March 16, 2026

Peak price

$40.22

peak on March 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$39.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.50 – $33.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.13

published December 16, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Investors may keep bidding the stock higher for the next few months after strong long-term trial results for zorevunersen with Biogen and a big after-hours price jump. The short-term picture looks positive, but because trading is light the price can jump or drop quickly, so prefer buying on small pullbacks and keep position sizes modest.

Primary drivers

Strong long-term trial results with Biogen that can sustain interest for weeks
Positive short-term price action that may continue if pullbacks stay calm
Small available shares and low trading can magnify moves up or down
Insider option exercise increased shares for sale, a short-term supply risk

How it played out

STOK: target reached in 76 days

Lyra published STOK at $33.13 on 2025-12-16 with 20% expected growth. The thesis pointed to long-term zorevunersen trial results with Biogen, positive short-term price action, small available shares and light trading that could magnify moves, and an insider option exercise as a short-term supply risk.

Inside the window, STOK reached a peak of $40.22 on 2026-03-10, above the $39.76 target. The peak gain was 21.4%, and the target was reached in 76 days. The stock ended the window at $33.96. The thesis played out, though the final price had fallen back near the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All STOK signals