Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 16, 2026 — +18.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$280.00 – $290.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$287.10Published — price the day we called it

$330.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$340.23Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

At window close

+18.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+35.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$340.23

last close inside the window, ended March 16, 2026

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$330.17

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$280.00 – $290.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$287.10

published December 16, 2025

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks positioned for a short-term rebound inside a longer AI-driven uptrend. Key signals show it is very oversold while momentum trends stay positive. Recent reports say demand for advanced chips is stronger than supply and TSM looks cheaper than a peer, which may bring more buying. Because price swings are larger, add in stages instead of buying all at once.

Primary drivers

Stronger-than-expected demand for advanced chips
Very oversold now, so a likely short rebound
Seen as cheaper than a peer, which can attract buyers
Market leadership could recover quickly if risk appetite returns

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-12-16 at 287.10 with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to stronger-than-expected demand for advanced chips, an oversold setup that could support a short rebound, a cheaper valuation than a peer, and possible recovery in market leadership if risk appetite returned.

Inside the window from 2025-12-16 to 2026-03-16, the stock reached the 330.17 target in 20 days. It later peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 35.9%. It ended at 340.23. The thesis played out and went past the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported 2025 revenue of $122.42 billion and net income of $55.13 billion, and said it planned $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026 capital spending. On 2026-03-10, TSMC reported February sales rose 22.2% year over year, while January and February sales rose 29.9% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals