Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 15, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 15, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$292.42 Published $356.75 Target $338.31 Window close $390.21 Peak
$285.00 – $295.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$292.42Published — price the day we called it
$356.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$338.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 56 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$338.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
56
Window
December 15, 2025 – March 15, 2026

The thesis — published December 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$356.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$285.00 – $295.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$292.42
published December 15, 2025
Confidence
93%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is seen as a key company supplying chips for AI work. Short-term indicators show it may be temporarily oversold while other signals still look positive, so a price bounce back is likely if the larger uptrend holds. Recent news keeps long-term investor interest strong. The plan: buy gradually around $285-$295 if stability returns.

Primary drivers

  • Growing need for AI and high-performance computing chips boosts factory use and pricing
  • Short-term selling looks extreme but some momentum signals suggest a bounce
  • Analyst notes and coverage keep investor interest focused on TSM as AI exposure
  • Large investors help cushion ups and downs during chip industry swings

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 56 days

Lyra published TSM at $292.42 on 2025-12-15 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing chips, a short-term oversold setup with some bounce signals, analyst attention around TSM's artificial intelligence exposure, and large investors as a possible cushion during chip swings.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $356.75 target in 56 days. It later peaked at $390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 33.4%. By 2026-03-15, it ended at $338.31. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported 2025 results and said it planned $52-$56 billion in 2026 capital spending. The company also said fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was $33.73 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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