Track record · closed signal

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025 — +39.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BABA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$116.97 Published $143.87 Target $162.86 Window close $192.67 Peak
$112.00 – $118.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$116.97Published — price the day we called it
$143.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$192.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$162.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 55 days.

At window close
+39.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+64.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$162.86
last close inside the window, ended October 14, 2025
Peak price
$192.67
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
55

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+23%
over the measurement window
Target price
$143.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$112.00 – $118.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$116.97
published July 16, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alibaba’s share price recently climbed past its recent average price with about 70% more buying than usual, helped by news that its MiniMax AI spin-off plans to go public and by landing a $5 billion cloud deal. Even after the jump, the stock is priced at just 11 times next year’s earnings, roughly 40% cheaper than similar firms, while sales on its sites keep growing and US-China relations look a bit warmer. If no new political flare-ups occur, the market could value it near $140 in the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Price rising past recent average with 70% extra buying hints the downtrend may be over.
  • Planned MiniMax listing and a $5 billion cloud contract boost the company’s AI story.
  • Shares cost 40% less than rivals when comparing next year’s expected profits.
  • Easing US-China tension is bringing more overseas money into Chinese tech funds.

How it played out

BABA: target reached in 55 days

Lyra published BABA at 116.97 on July 16, 2025, with expected growth of 23%. The thesis pointed to price strength with 70% extra buying, a planned MiniMax listing, a $5 billion cloud contract, a 40% discount to rivals on next year's expected profits, and easing US-China tension.

Inside the window, BABA reached the 143.87 target in 55 days. It later peaked at 192.67 on October 2, with a peak gain of 64.7%. It ended the window at 162.86. The thesis played out and then went further than the target.

What happened during the window

On August 29, 2025, Alibaba reported June-quarter results. The report said adjusted net profit fell 18% to 33.51 billion yuan, while net profit rose 78% to 43.12 billion yuan.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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