Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from December 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 15, 2026 — -2.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$33.00 – $35.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$34.14Published — price the day we called it

$49.50Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$33.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$33.19

last close inside the window, ended March 15, 2026

Peak price

$40.22

peak on March 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+45%

over the measurement window

Target price

$49.50

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$33.00 – $35.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$34.14

published December 15, 2025

Confidence

95%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This biotech stock often moves a lot. Recent clinical news about its Dravet program with Biogen caused a strong after-hours jump and heavy trading, suggesting more people are buying than usual. Some insiders sold options, which raises risk. The setup looks like a short-term rebound opportunity, but use small entries and tight risk limits.

Primary drivers

Good long-term Dravet trial results with Biogen could change investor views
Big after-hours jump and heavy trading suggest rising buyer interest
Indicator showed oversold then flipped bullish, pointing to a short-term rebound
Biotech stocks move strongly around news, which can magnify gains or losses

How it played out

STOK: thesis rose but target was not reached

Lyra published STOK on 2025-12-15 at $34.14 with an expected growth of 45%. The thesis pointed to Dravet trial results with Biogen, a big after-hours jump with heavy trading, an oversold indicator that had flipped bullish, and the way biotech stocks could move strongly around news. It also noted insider option sales as a risk.

Inside the window, STOK peaked at $40.22 on 2026-03-10. That was a 17.8% gain, but it stayed below the $49.50 target. The target was never reached. The window ended at $33.19. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose, but the published upside did not arrive.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All STOK signals