Track record · closed signal

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) — closed signal from December 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NFLX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.19 Published $114.23 Target $95.31 Window close $100.19 Peak
$92.50 – $96.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.19Published — price the day we called it
$114.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$95.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.19
peak on March 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$95.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 14, 2025 – March 14, 2026

The thesis — published December 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$114.23
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$92.50 – $96.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.19
published December 14, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Netflix may get a short-term lift because news and opinion drive buying quickly. The company announced a 10-for-1 stock split and its ad-supported tier now has 190 million monthly viewers, which helps the sales story. That can attract quick buyers after a drop, but prices can swing fast, so use tight stops and lock in profits when gains appear.

Primary drivers

  • More ad viewers can make each user worth more over time
  • Stock split and coverage can bring short-term buyer attention
  • Recent overselling makes a price rebound more likely
  • Strong public story means quick gains and fast profit-taking

How it played out

NFLX: target missed after a 5.3% peak gain

Lyra published NFLX at 95.19 on 2025-12-14 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-14. The thesis expected 20% growth. It pointed to the 10-for-1 stock split, 190 million monthly viewers for the ad-supported tier, recent overselling, and a public story that could bring quick buyers after a drop.

Inside the window, NFLX rose to a peak of 100.19 on 2026-03-05, a 5.3% gain. It stayed below the 114.23 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 95.31. The thesis only partially played out: there was a rebound, but not the move Lyra had targeted.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-26, Netflix declined to raise its Warner Bros. offer after Warner Bros. Discovery deemed Paramount Skydance's bid superior. On 2026-03-05, Deadline reported that Netflix was acquiring InterPositive, a filmmaking technology firm founded by Ben Affleck.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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