Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 14, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 14, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 32 days.
The thesis — published December 14, 2025
TSM looks likely to bounce in the next 0-3 months after a recent drop pushed short-term momentum very low while the bigger trend stays positive. Recent news - Nvidia may make more H200 chips and Rivian will have TSMC build its autonomy chips - supports steady demand. Expect quick rebounds but be ready for sudden price swings from export-control headlines.
Primary drivers
- Clear demand from major AI and auto customers
- Large manufacturing scale gives pricing and supply advantages
- Recently very oversold versus longer-term uptrend
- Positive market sentiment, but export headlines can spike volatility
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 32 days
Lyra published TSM at 292.04 on 2025-12-14 with a short-term thesis for 20% expected growth. The thesis pointed to demand from major artificial intelligence and auto customers, manufacturing scale, an oversold setup against a positive longer-term trend, and possible volatility from export-control headlines.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 350.45 target in 32 days. It later peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a 33.6% peak gain. By 2026-03-14 it ended at 338.31. The thesis played out, even though the close sat below the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported 2025 results, including fourth-quarter net profit of 505.744 billion Taiwan dollars and fourth-quarter sales of 1.04 trillion Taiwan dollars. On 2026-02-10, TSMC's board approved 44.962 billion dollars of capital appropriations for new fabs and capacity upgrades.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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