Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from December 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.75 – $33.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$32.39Published — price the day we called it

$41.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$33.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$40.22

peak on March 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+24.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$33.19

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 13, 2025 – March 13, 2026

The thesis — published December 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$41.46

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.75 – $33.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$32.39

published December 13, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Stoke jumped after good long-term results for its Dravet program with Biogen, creating a short-term 0-3 month window where buyers are excited. The move looks driven by real clinical news and strong investor interest, not just rumors. Still, biotech stocks move a lot and insiders selling can look worrying, so keep positions small and phased in.

Primary drivers

Good Dravet results keep the short-term story alive
Current buying momentum supports staying power
High investor interest can attract more buyers
Biogen partnership gives the program more credibility

How it played out

STOK: thesis came close but missed the target

Lyra published STOK at $32.39 on 2025-12-13 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-13. The thesis expected 28% growth. It pointed to good Dravet results, current buying momentum, high investor interest, and the Biogen partnership as reasons buyers could keep supporting the move.

Inside the window, STOK rose to a $40.22 peak on 2026-03-10, with a 24.2% peak gain. The $41.46 target was never reached. It ended the window at $33.19. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose strongly, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-16, Investor's Business Daily wrote that Stoke had reported third-quarter revenue of $10.6 million and a loss of $0.65 per share. On 2026-02-23, Investor's Business Daily wrote that zorevunersen was in Phase 3 trials and that management had discussed a planned FDA meeting before year-end.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All STOK signals