Track record · closed signal

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — closed signal from December 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADBE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$356.43 Published $427.72 Target $269.78 Window close $359.67 Peak
$345.00 – $360.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$356.43Published — price the day we called it
$427.72Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$359.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$269.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 5% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$359.67
peak on December 23, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$269.78
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 13, 2025 – March 13, 2026

The thesis — published December 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$427.72
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $360.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$356.43
published December 13, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Adobe looks likely to bounce in the next 0-3 months because the company announced a big $20 billion share buyback that will retire just over 10% of shares and it keeps pushing AI features. That buyback makes shares scarcer and signals management confidence. Expect volatility - treat this as buying a high-quality software company on dips, not a fast trade.

Primary drivers

  • $20B buyback reduces shares and supports demand near-term
  • AI product development keeps investor interest and future sales growth
  • Recent momentum fixes suggest sellers have eased, but swings remain
  • Large installed customer base gives steady revenue if growth returns

How it played out

ADBE: the target was never reached

Lyra published ADBE at 356.43 on 2025-12-13 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to a $20 billion buyback that would retire just over 10% of shares, continued artificial intelligence product work, easing selling pressure after recent momentum fixes, and a large installed customer base. It expected a bounce within 0-3 months, with volatility.

Inside the window, ADBE peaked at 359.67 on 2025-12-23, a 0.9% gain. It never reached 427.72. By 2026-03-13, it ended at 269.78. The thesis missed: the stock made only a small early move above the publication price, then finished far below it.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-12, Adobe reported fiscal first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $6.06 a share on sales of $6.4 billion for the quarter ended Feb. 27. The same day, Shantanu Narayen announced plans to step down as CEO after 18 years.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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