Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from December 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$280.00 – $295.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$292.04Published — price the day we called it

$365.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$338.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 60 days.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+33.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$338.31

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

December 13, 2025 – March 13, 2026

The thesis — published December 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$365.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$280.00 – $295.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$292.04

published December 13, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like it may rebound quickly because price action shows a sharp sell-off followed by signs of buying interest, and analysts agree the company's underlying business is healthy. Nvidia evaluating bigger chip orders helps demand expectations. Trading is choppy, so gains could be fast but also come with elevated ups and downs.

Primary drivers

Price fell sharply and now shows signs of buyers stepping in
Stronger demand from AI chip customers like Nvidia supports production
Company fundamentals are solid, reducing risk of weakness
Well-known tech name can attract buyers when it dips

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 60 days

Lyra published TSM at 292.04 on December 13, 2025, with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to a sharp sell-off, signs of buyers stepping in, demand from artificial intelligence chip customers such as Nvidia, solid fundamentals, and the chance that a well-known tech name could attract buyers after a dip.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 365.05 target in 60 days. It later peaked at 390.21 on February 25, 2026, for a 33.6% gain. By March 13, 2026, it ended at 338.31. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On February 10, 2026, TSMC's board approved capital appropriations for new fabs and upgrades. On March 10, 2026, Investor's Business Daily reported that TSMC said February sales rose 22.2% year over year and fell 20.8% from January.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals