Track record · closed signal

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) — closed signal from December 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NFLX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.00 – $97.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$96.06Published — price the day we called it

$111.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$94.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$100.19

peak on March 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$94.31

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 12, 2025 – March 12, 2026

The thesis — published December 12, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.00 – $97.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$96.06

published December 12, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Price looks like a short-term rebound after a big sell-off. Momentum readings are very low and trading volume is high, which means sellers may be exhausted. However other indicators still point down and news about people moving money out of tech plus political headlines can keep the stock volatile. Treat as a quick trade and use tight stops.

Primary drivers

Very oversold price can prompt a quick bounce
Heavy trading shows many investors are repositioning
Broad money moving away from tech can limit gains
Political headlines around content raise short-term swings

How it played out

NFLX: rebound stayed below target

Lyra published NFLX at 96.06 on 2025-12-12 as a short-term rebound trade. The thesis expected 16% growth and pointed to very oversold price action, heavy trading, broad money moving away from tech, and political headlines around content. It also said other indicators still pointed down and volatility could stay high.

Inside the window, NFLX rose, but it did not reach 111.43. The peak was 100.19 on 2026-03-05, a 4.3% gain. It never got there. By 2026-03-12, the stock ended at 94.31. The thesis partially played out: there was a bounce, but it stayed below the target and faded by the end.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-20, Netflix changed its Warner Bros. Discovery studios and streaming bid to an all-cash offer. On 2026-03-05, Deadline reported that Netflix was acquiring InterPositive, a filmmaking technology company founded by Ben Affleck.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NFLX signals