Track record · closed signal

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — closed signal from December 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADBE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$359.00 Published $423.62 Target $269.78 Window close $362.71 Peak
$348.00 – $362.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$359.00Published — price the day we called it
$423.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$362.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$269.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$362.71
peak on December 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$269.78
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 12, 2025 – March 12, 2026

The thesis — published December 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$423.62
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$348.00 – $362.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$359.00
published December 12, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Adobe saw strong AI-focused news during earnings week and an exec said the company has a real edge in the AI era. That keeps investor interest high even as money shifts away from some AI-linked tech. Price-action signals show recent strength with heavier buying than normal, but the stock looks stretched, so only buy on dips and keep risk tight.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings comments show Adobe's AI advantages and steady demand
  • Price action shows lots more people are buying than usual
  • Investors are paying attention to AI news, keeping trading active
  • Buying on pullbacks limits risk when the stock feels stretched

How it played out

ADBE: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published ADBE on 2025-12-12 at 359. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to earnings comments about artificial intelligence advantages and steady demand, stronger buying than usual, active investor attention around artificial intelligence news, and a preference for buying pullbacks because the stock looked stretched.

Inside the window, ADBE peaked at 362.71 on 2025-12-12, with a 1% peak gain. It never reached 423.62. By 2026-03-12, it ended at 269.78. The thesis missed. The early price strength was brief, and the stock finished well below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-12, Adobe reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $6.4 billion and adjusted earnings of $6.06 a share. The same report said Shantanu Narayen planned to step down as CEO after a successor was chosen.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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