Track record · closed signal

XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025 — -12% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.25 – $18.04Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.04Published — price the day we called it

$21.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$15.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 59% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-12%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$15.88

last close inside the window, ended October 14, 2025

Peak price

$20.15

peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$21.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.25 – $18.04

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.04

published July 16, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

XP's share price has bounced off 18 dollars three times, showing strong buying interest. Very few traders are betting against it and overall mood is upbeat. A fresh lawsuit against a research firm that attacked the company removes cloud over the stock. Lower interest rates in Brazil normally lift trading and lending. At 11 times expected profits the shares look cheap, so a move toward 22 dollars inside three months seems possible, though emerging-market swings remain a risk.

Primary drivers

Price bounced off 18 dollars three times and is oversold, hinting a rebound
Company suing critical research firm boosts investor mood to extremely positive
Lower Brazilian interest rates usually bring in twice the trading business for XP
Stock is priced at 11 times expected earnings and holds extra cash, limiting downside

How it played out

XP: thesis rose partway, then missed the target

Lyra published XP at $18.04 on 2025-07-16, with 20% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to repeated buying interest near $18, a rebound setup, upbeat sentiment after a lawsuit against a critical research firm, lower Brazilian interest rates, and valuation at 11 times expected earnings.

Inside the window, XP reached a peak of $20.15 on 2025-09-17, a 11.7% gain. That stayed below the $21.43 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-14, the stock ended at $15.88. The thesis partially played out early, but the full target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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