Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from December 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026 — -7.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$302.27 – $312.18Entry zone — fair-value band

$311.36Published — price the day we called it

$344.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$335.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$287.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-7.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$287.52

last close inside the window, ended March 11, 2026

Peak price

$335.87

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$344.06

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$302.27 – $312.18

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$311.36

published December 11, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

JPMorgan is the leading U.S. bank and is slowly improving. More people are building products and using technology to work faster, and the firm just launched a new Treasury ETF that can draw cautious investors. The stock has been rising steadily with low volatility, so this is seen as a dependable holding that can inch higher over the next few months.

Primary drivers

High composite score and positive market sentiment make it a core bank holding.
Price action shows a steady, low-volatility uptrend that favors buying weakness.
New Treasury ETF broadens offerings and can attract conservative investors.
Using generative AI to raise productivity should help profits and justify a premium.

How it played out

JPM: target was not reached

Lyra published JPM on 2025-12-11 at $311.36 with 11% expected growth and a $344.06 target. The thesis pointed to a high composite score, positive market sentiment, steady low-volatility price action, a new Treasury ETF, and productivity work tied to artificial intelligence.

Inside the window from 2025-12-11 to 2026-03-11, JPM rose to a $335.87 peak on 2026-01-06, a 7.9% gain. It stayed below the $344.06 target and ended at $287.52. The thesis partly played out early, but it did not reach the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-18, Axios reported that Chase planned to open 160 new branches in 2026 and renovate 600 existing branches. The Wall Street Journal reported that JPMorgan Chase's fourth-quarter profit fell 7%, with profit of $13 billion and revenue of $45.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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