JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from December 11, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 11, 2025
JPMorgan is the leading U.S. bank and is slowly improving. More people are building products and using technology to work faster, and the firm just launched a new Treasury ETF that can draw cautious investors. The stock has been rising steadily with low volatility, so this is seen as a dependable holding that can inch higher over the next few months.
Primary drivers
- High composite score and positive market sentiment make it a core bank holding.
- Price action shows a steady, low-volatility uptrend that favors buying weakness.
- New Treasury ETF broadens offerings and can attract conservative investors.
- Using generative AI to raise productivity should help profits and justify a premium.
How it played out
JPM: target was not reached
Lyra published JPM on 2025-12-11 at $311.36 with 11% expected growth and a $344.06 target. The thesis pointed to a high composite score, positive market sentiment, steady low-volatility price action, a new Treasury ETF, and productivity work tied to artificial intelligence.
Inside the window from 2025-12-11 to 2026-03-11, JPM rose to a $335.87 peak on 2026-01-06, a 7.9% gain. It stayed below the $344.06 target and ended at $287.52. The thesis partly played out early, but it did not reach the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-18, Axios reported that Chase planned to open 160 new branches in 2026 and renovate 600 existing branches. The Wall Street Journal reported that JPMorgan Chase's fourth-quarter profit fell 7%, with profit of $13 billion and revenue of $45.8 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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