Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from December 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$30.50 – $32.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$31.12Published — price the day we called it

$43.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$38.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 73% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$40.22

peak on March 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+29.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$38.35

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 10, 2025 – March 10, 2026

The thesis — published December 10, 2025

Predicted growth

+40%

over the measurement window

Target price

$43.56

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$30.50 – $32.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$31.12

published December 10, 2025

Confidence

95%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Stoke reported strong results for its Dravet treatment showing lasting seizure and thinking improvements. The stock rose after those results and recent trading shows more buyers than before. That combination of positive trial data and renewed buying interest suggests a meaningful short-term upside, though small biotech trials remain risky.

Primary drivers

Data shows zorevunersen helps seizures and thinking areas.
Dec 10 after-hours jump shows renewed investor interest.
Quant systems identify a recovery from a deep sell-off.
Few competitors in severe genetic epilepsy could mean big upside.

How it played out

STOK: 29.3% peak gain, target not reached

Lyra published STOK at 31.12 on 2025-12-10 with 40% expected growth and a 43.56 target. The thesis pointed to zorevunersen data, an after-hours jump on Dec. 10, a recovery from a deep sell-off, and limited competition in severe genetic epilepsy. It also noted small biotech trial risk.

In the window through 2026-03-10, STOK rose but did not reach 43.56. The peak was 40.22 on 2026-03-10, a 29.3% gain. It ended at 38.35. The thesis partially played out: direction was right, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 16, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that Stoke's Q3 2025 revenue rose 117% to $10.6 million and that its loss was $0.65 per share. On Feb. 23, 2026, it reported that zorevunersen was in Phase 3 clinical trials and that a meeting with the FDA was expected by year-end.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All STOK signals