Track record · closed signal

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) — closed signal from December 9, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.12 Published $19.92 Target $17.27 Window close $19.31 Peak
$16.03 – $17.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.12Published — price the day we called it
$19.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.31Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$17.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$19.31
peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$17.27
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 9, 2025 – March 9, 2026

The thesis — published December 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$19.92
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.03 – $17.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.12
published December 9, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ARMOUR pays a high monthly dividend and looks like it may be starting to trend higher as interest rates show signs of calming. Recent company news confirmed the $0.24 monthly payout, which keeps income investors interested. If long term rates fall or stop rising, the stock could gain a bit in price on top of the dividend.

Primary drivers

  • Early signs of a price upswing that may continue as rates calm.
  • Holds government-backed mortgages that pay high income but react to rates.
  • Recent dividend declarations confirm the $0.24 monthly payment.
  • If long-term rates ease, the stock price could rise in addition to yield.

How it played out

ARR: thesis partly played out but missed the target

Lyra published ARR at $17.12 on 2025-12-09 with an 18% expected gain. The thesis pointed to a high monthly dividend, early signs of a price upswing, government-backed mortgage holdings, the confirmed $0.24 monthly payout, and the idea that calmer long-term rates could support the price.

Inside the window, ARR rose, but it did not reach $19.92. The peak was $19.31 on 2026-01-16, with a 12.8% gain. It never got there. By 2026-03-09, the stock ended at $17.27. The published thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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