Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from December 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$298.96 Published $342.88 Target $348.70 Window close $390.21 Peak
$293.41 – $298.39Entry zone — fair-value band
$298.96Published — price the day we called it
$342.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$348.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 37 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$348.70
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
37
Window
December 9, 2025 – March 9, 2026

The thesis — published December 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$342.88
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$293.41 – $298.39
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$298.96
published December 9, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM makes the chips that power AI and is selling a lot more than it did last year while keeping very healthy profits. Recent news shows strong sales and margins even as it spends on factories abroad. The stock has run up fast, so it's sensible to wait for small pullbacks to get a better price for a three-month trade.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in making chips for AI with rising sales and profits.
  • Investor sentiment stays strong despite a big recent run.
  • Recent reports show much higher quarter sales and strong margins.
  • Less export friction and big AI orders help future growth.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 37 days

Lyra published TSM at 298.96 on 2025-12-09 with expected growth of 15%. The target was 342.88. The thesis pointed to leadership in chips for artificial intelligence, rising sales and profits, strong margins, firm investor sentiment, less export friction, and large orders tied to artificial intelligence.

Inside the window, TSM rose past the target. It reached 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 30.5%. The target was reached in 37 days. The stock ended the window at 348.70, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 15, 2026, TSMC reported 2025 revenue of $122.42 billion and net income of $55.13 billion. On February 10, 2026, its board approved a $44.962 billion spending package for new fabs and production upgrades.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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