XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from December 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 8, 2026 — +8.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 73 days.
The thesis — published December 8, 2025
XP's stock has risen a lot this year but still looks cheaper than a recent estimate of fair value near $23 while trading in the high teens. After a recent dip it appears ready for a short-term bounce. The company is a strong player in Brazil's investment services, but being tied to one country and its currency can make the stock jump around, so treat this as an opportunistic trade.
Primary drivers
- Stock is up strongly this year but still below a fair value estimate of $23
- Recent price drop suggests the stock could bounce back soon
- Company holds a strong position among Brazilian investment platforms
- Exposure to Brazil and its currency can cause big swings in price
How it played out
XP: target reached in 73 days
Lyra published XP at $18.18 on 2025-12-08 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to a stock that had risen strongly but was still below a fair value estimate of $23, a recent price drop that could set up a bounce, XP's position among Brazilian investment platforms, and Brazil and currency exposure that could make the stock move sharply.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $21.24 target in 73 days. It peaked at $23.13 on 2026-02-20, with a peak gain of 27.2%. By 2026-03-08, it ended at $19.71. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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