XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from December 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 8, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 73 days.
The thesis — published December 8, 2025
XP's stock has risen a lot this year but still looks cheaper than a recent estimate of fair value near $23 while trading in the high teens. After a recent dip it appears ready for a short-term bounce. The company is a strong player in Brazil's investment services, but being tied to one country and its currency can make the stock jump around, so treat this as an opportunistic trade.
Primary drivers
- Stock is up strongly this year but still below a fair value estimate of $23
- Recent price drop suggests the stock could bounce back soon
- Company holds a strong position among Brazilian investment platforms
- Exposure to Brazil and its currency can cause big swings in price
How it played out
XP: target reached in 73 days
Lyra published XP at $18.18 on 2025-12-08 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to a stock that had risen strongly but was still below a fair value estimate of $23, a recent price drop that could set up a bounce, XP's position among Brazilian investment platforms, and Brazil and currency exposure that could make the stock move sharply.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $21.24 target in 73 days. It peaked at $23.13 on 2026-02-20, with a peak gain of 27.2%. By 2026-03-08, it ended at $19.71. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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